Saturday, May 5

Sarkozy or Royal - Who will be the next French President?


The Lalinde village Square on the eve of the First Round of the elections
and on the eve of the Second Round...........

waiting for the voters......
and the result

Tonight we will know the answer. Here is an excellent site to follow the results as they come in tonight after 8pm.

There has been so much written about and debated on who will be the next French President. The French who are so ensconced in their Left or their Right corners, that they ventured, very hesitantly and very carefully, for the first time, into the centrist waters with a surprisingly 18% vote for Bayrou in the first round But although the 18% was an unprecedented daring event, it was definitely not going to be more --contrary to what I had forecast and expected -- rather voting for candiates whom they do not like or respect, but who are LEFT or RIIGHT, showing their difficulty with acceptance of change -- no matter how much they realize that change is of the utmost importance to keep their country from grinding to a painful halt.

Agence France Presse reports: "Both the right-wing front-runner Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist Segolene Royal have spelled out their priorities for their early days in office if elected on Sunday at the helm of the euro-zone's second largest economy after Germany.

"For Sarkozy who has presented himself as the candidate of the clean break, this means that a clean break can't happen little by little, over five years," said Bacot, adding that Royal has also pledged to swiftly bring change. Sarkozy and Royal are confident they can secure a majority for their party in the National Assembly and win a free hand to push through reforms following a campaign that has been dominated by calls for change."

The first order of business for the president-elect who takes office around May 17 will be
**the appointment of a caretaker government ahead of legislative elections in June.
**making a foray into the international stage at the Group of Eight summit in Heiligendamm, Germany from June 6 to 8 and at an EU summit in Brussels on June 21 and 22.
**to bring unemployment, currently one of the highest in Europe at 8.3 percent, down to below five percent,
**to stimulate growth through a series of tax cuts that he argues will fuel consumer spending.
**Royale wil want to zero in on youth unemployment as a key battleground, creating some 500,000 jobs for the young French whose jobless rate is more than twice the national average
** Her first piece of legislation submitted to parliament will be a bill on violence against women that will improve assistance for victims and raise public awareness.
** Sarkozy plans to call an extraordinary session of parliament in July to adopt a raft of measures to "restore the value of hard work" -- a central theme of his presidential campaign. He has promised to exempt overtime worked above 35 hours from tax and social charges and bring down taxes by four percentage points -- although economists are skeptical that this can be done without putting the state in dire financial straits.

The first test of a Sarkozy presidency could well come with a bill to be submitted this summer to force public-sector monopolies, notably in transport, to ensure minimum services during strikes. The proposal has angered unions who see it as a unilateral move and sparked warnings of mass protests. The secretary general of the CFDT union, Francois Chereque, had predicted that there are bound to be protest movements, and Roayl has also used this not-so-veiled threat during the last few tense days. "His candidacy is dangerous. That is why I am asking voters to think twice," she told RTL radio in one of her final declarations of one of the most hotly contested elections in decades.' In the suburbs where the former interior minister is considered persona non grata, Sarkozy has promised to launch this summer a "Marshall Plan" to provide training for unskilled youth and prevent them from turning to crime. Although this is not anticipated to happen without severe opposition in the banlieu, the vote, if it goes his way, will be a reflection of the general feeling in France of people who have had enough of too-lenient policies towards minorities and immigrants.
**Royal will want to pay immediate attention to her most vociforous promise, namely to help the some two million women in France who are victims of spousal abuse and preventing the 400 who death of about 400 women who die every year att the hands of their husbands or partners.
** Royal furthermore promised to convene an employer-union conference in June that will tackle a broad gamut of economic issues, from wages to pension reform and also, the 35-hour workweek.
** and lastly she has pledged to reform the institutions of government to bring them closer to the people, reducing the powers of the presidency and giving parliament greater oversight. A referendum on the institutions of a new Sixth Republic would take place in September under President Royal.


Who will it be? UMP Nicolas Sarkozy, 52 years old, or the socialist Ségolène Royal, 53 years old?


These are their promised policies on: (R*=Royal, S*=Sarkozy)

SALARIES, BENEFITS AND PENSIONS

R* Minimum wage to rise by about 250 euros ($325) to 1,500 euros per month
R* Raise basic state pension by 5%
R* Jobless to receive 90% of salary for first year of unemployment
S* Exempt overtime (above 35 hours) from taxes and social security charges
S* Allow workers to retire at the age they want
S* Potentially remove benefits from those who turn down work

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

R* Renegotiated EU treaty put to referendum
R* Create a Eurozone government, which would promote economic growth and agreement on common tax levels
R* New EU-led Mideast peace initiative
S* "Mini" EU treaty put to French parliament
S* Create a new "Mediterranean Union" comprising France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Cyprus
S* Oppose Turkey's membership of the EU

HOUSING

R* Build 120,000 new council homes per year and allow councils to claim properties empty for two years
R* Cap some private rents and grant lifelong guarantee of housing
S* Provide assistance to those in council housing who want to buy their property
S* No person forced to sleep rough within two years of his election

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE

R* Reduce dependence on nuclear power
R* 20% of energy from renewables by 2020
R* Reform EU farming subsidies to favour environment and smaller farmers
S* Promote nuclear power as a clean source of energy
S* Increase amount of tax on pollution
S* Simplify EU farming subsidies and link payments to actual market prices for products

ECONOMY AND TAXES

R* No increase in general taxation
R* Lower tax burden on companies that create jobs
R* "Consolidate" 35-hour week
S* 4 percentage point drop in taxes
S* Exempt up to 95% of population from inheritance tax
S* Allow people to work more than 35 hours if they wish

IMMIGRATION, LAW AND ORDER

R* Residency papers for those who meet certain criteria such as job contract, time in France
R* Military-style training camps for young offenders
S* Reduce illegal immigration, pursue selective immigration that favours arrival of qualified workers
S* Minimum sentences for repeat offenders, tougher sentences for juveniles

HOW TO PAY FOR IT

R* Financed by economic growth of 2.5% every year over next five years
S* Cut civil service, costs of which account for 45% of government budget


The French presidency: a user's guide

-- AFP copyright

Under the terms of the country's Fifth Republic constitution, the president of France is one of the most powerful elected leaders in the world.

Devised by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 in order to boost the authority of the head of state, the constitution declares the president to be the "guarantor of national independence" who "assures ... the proper functioning of public powers and the continuity of the State".

The president is head of the armed forces -- with control over France's sea- and air-based nuclear arsenal -- and every July 14 officiates at the military parade down the Champs Elysees in Paris.

He or she names the prime minister, chairs cabinet meetings and can dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. Under Article 16, the president can declare a state of emergency and rule by decree in the event of a national crisis.

Under Article 64 of the text, the president is guarantor of the independence of the judiciary, and presides over its governing body, the Higher Council of the Magistrature (CSM). Under Article 17, he or she has power to issue pardons.

In theory France's Fifth Republic is a mixed presidential-parliamentary system, with a government -- led by a prime minister and answerable to the National Assembly -- which "determines and conducts the policy of the nation". In practice, powers have been increasingly consolidated in the hands of the president -- especially after the 1962 constitution change under which the president was directly elected by the people. In the original constitution, he was chosen by an electoral college.

Prime ministers in France thus tend to be loyal agents of the president's rule.

The only time prime ministers establish their independence is when there is a majority in the National Assembly that opposes the president. In these periods of "cohabitation" -- there have been three of them -- the president is forced to take a step back from domestic affairs.

In order to reduce the likelihood of "cohabitations", in 2000 the constitution was changed to reduce the president's mandate from seven to five years. Five years is also the mandate of the legislature, and the principle is that the two terms should run concurrently.
Visit the English version web site of the for additional information.presidency for additional information

This is why the presidential elections on Sunday will be followed in June by elections for a new National Assembly. The expectation is that the new president will get a supporting majority in the legislature, though there is no guarantee.

The president elected on May 6 -- Nicolas Sarkozy or Segolene Royal -- will be the 23rd in French history and the sixth in the Fifth Republic.

The country's first president was Napoleon's nephew Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, who was elected in 1848 and declared himself emperor four years later. At 40 when he took office, he was also the youngest president in French history.

Under the Third and Fourth Republics (1871-1940 and 1946-1958), presidents were chosen by parliament and their powers were limited.

The presidents of the Fifth Republic were Charles de Gaulle (1958-1969); Georges Pompidou (1969-1974); Valery Giscard d'Estaing (1974-1981); Francois Mitterrand (1981-1995); and Jacques Chirac (1995-2007).

De Gaulle resigned during his second term and Pompidou died in office. Mitterrand's 14 years was the longest ever served by a French president.

France's political institutions have come under growing critical scrutiny in recent years, and there have been calls to make the president more accountable.

Neither Sarkozy nor Royal favours wholesale reform. However they both want to restrict presidents to two terms in office, and limit their powers to make nominations to state offices. Sarkozy wants the president to have the right to explain himself before the National Assembly.


Today at midday, 34,11% of the electorate had already cast their vote -- much higher that the average total vote of previous years. The French realise the importance of this election.
That already is a good sign.
Let us hope they choose well.






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